Independent Voters Grow Again

Just about three years ago, we wrote of the surge in Independent voters as a real phenomenon in American politics:

“Research shows that independent voters are not merely "closet" Republicans or Democrats—but are actually developing their own political culture that rejects the increasingly extreme postures of the two main parties. If this is true, it could signal a dramatic reconfiguration of the American political landscape. Independents seem to base their voting decisions on individual candidates and specific public policy issues—not knee-jerk partisan messaging.”

Now, the Gallup organization has released new polling that shows the share of Independent voters has risen even higher—to 45% of the electorate. This is partly due to younger Gen Z voters moving to independent status at a greater pace than their Millennial and Gen X counterparts did. But, the trend is more profound than just age differentials can explain—it’s been happening steadily over the last 15 years. Moreover, today, just 27% each identify as either Republicans or Democrats—relegating the two major parties to also-ran status.

Whichever party can capture the hearts of this growing segment of Independent voters can significantly impact elections. For example, in 2022, while Republicans captured the Congress, they did so with much smaller margins in the House and Senate than was predicted. This was due in no small part to Independents breaking for Democratic candidates over Republicans by a 2-point margin.

As we near the critical 2026 mid-terms, Democrats still hold that edge—now by a 3-point margin. But, Independents—by their very nature—are a fickle lot. A whole host of issues between now and November (e.g., affordability, foreign military events, immigration enforcement) can swing things wildly in either direction. Indeed, Independent voters are now the new kingmakers.

Neanderthals Brought The First Fire

New discoveries in the northwest of England show that Neanderthals—and not Homo sapiens—were the first to engage in controlled, deliberate fire use 400,000 years ago. The previous known use of deliberate fire activity came from France—but only about 50,000 years ago. What this means is that our cousins in the human chain were the first to figure out that flint and pyrite could ignite twigs and sticks—and they did it 350,000 years sooner than us. 

Controlling fire—and not just using random fire from lightening strikes or wildfires—allowed Neanderthals to warm themselves and cook food. It also allowed them to wander the landscape, no longer chained to one spot. Now, they could carry their knowledge of fire-making anywhere.

While Neanderthals and Homo sapiens do share a common ancestor, their lineages are definitely distinct. Eventually, Homo sapiens won out in the competition with Neanderthals and emerged as the “modern” human we all are today. 

But doesn’t it seem a bit ironic that we’ve used the term “neanderthal” to represent an unsophisticated human? Because in fact, they beat us to the punch on one of the most important milestones of evolution. It brings to mind the Billy Joel composition, “We Didn’t Start The Fire”. Indeed, we did not.