July 5, 2025

King George's Last Chance

Two-hundred and fifty years ago today (July 5, 1775), the Second Continental Congress of the British American Colonies sent off a missive to King George III. It was a friendly entreaty to the monarch—pleading with him to prevent further conflict between the colonies and the Crown. 

The “Olive Branch Petition” expressed the genuine views of most of those gathered at Independence Hall in Philadelphia that summer—most notably articulated by delegate John Dickinson of Pennsylvania. Essentially, these men wanted to stay loyal to their Mother Country, but they needed the King to stop his Ministers from harassing the colonies they loved so much. A smaller contingent—led by John Adams of Massachusetts—felt war with Britain was inevitable.

The petition was almost embarrassingly deferential to the King, continuously stressing that his “loyal” colonists wanted to stop “the further effusion of blood”, and avert “the impending calamities that threaten the British Empire.” These references, of course, were to the events of the past April—when colonists clashed with British regulars at Lexington and Concord, Massachusetts. But the petition arrived in London around the same time as the news of the Battle of Bunker Hill, and King George had become convinced that the “Olive Branch Petition” was an insincere expression of a minority of his subjects in British North America. 

On August 23, 1775, the King issued his “Proclamation of Rebellion”, declaring the American colonies in a state of open revolt against the Crown. The conflict escalated and less than a year later (July 4, 1776), the Continental Congress issued the Declaration of Independence. Negotiation was now futile and both the colonists and King George had lost their last chance at reconciliation. 

June 28, 2025

Independents And The 2024 Election

We’ve all heard the standard explanation of Donald Trump’s 2024 election victory. The Republican did surprisingly well among some traditional Democratic constituencies—primarily Hispanics and non-white men. For example, Trump got 28% of all Hispanic voters in 2016; 36% in 2020; and 48% in 2024.

Now, the Pew Research Institute has released its prestigious Validated Voter Survey that indicates an even more fundamental reason for the 2024 election results. While the share of partisan votes was little changed between 2020 and 2024, the behavior of independent voters shifted. 

What prevented a Harris win was the composition of the electorate: Republicans and Republican-leaning independents made up 51% of those who actually voted (up from 47% in 2020). Democrats and Democrat-leaning independents made up just 48% of those who voted (down from 50% in 2020). And voting preference among all independent voters (including ones that lean toward a party) were split right down the middle in 2024—48% for Trump, 48% for Harris. In 2020, these independent voters chose Biden by 9 percentage points. It doesn’t take a math whiz to see why Trump won by 1.5%.

And, turnout wasn’t the issue either. Fully 64% of the eligible electorate voted in 2024—the second-highest since 1960. In fact, based on Pew’s analysis, Trump would still have won if every eligible voter turned out. It was the shift in overall independent voting that was the key. If this analysis is correct, the national Democratic Party has an even bigger challenge to overcome in the 2028 election—reclaiming independents.