The Swing Six: States That May Determine The 2020 Election

Light-red states=Trump win by <4%

In 2016, Donald Trump carried six key swings states by a margin of less than 4%—Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, North Carolina, Florida, and Arizona. In three of those states (Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania), Trump's victory margin averaged just 0.6% of the vote. Because of the "winner-take-all" nature of the Electoral College, Trump took all 46 electoral votes at stake in those three states. A swing of less than 80,000 votes would have made Hillary Clinton president.

How are these races looking with just about six months until Election Day? Overall, the most recent polling averages from Real Clear Politics show Joe Biden beating President Trump by a margin of 4.4 points nationally; the breakdown in the Swing Six is:

Wisconsin D+2.7
Pennsylvania D+6.5
North Carolina R+0.3
Florida D+3.2
Michigan D+4.4
Arizona D+4.4

So, across the six states, the Democratic advantage averages about 3.5 points. Clearly, a lot can happen between now and November 3rd. As an example, we just have to look at how our lives have changed in the last six weeks. The outcome will likely be determined by the interplay of two issues—the response to the COVID-19 pandemic and the performance of the overall economy. Obviously, these two are intertwined. The question will be who is assessed the blame and/or credit for how things stand on Election Day. Stay tuned!