The truth is, seven months is a lifetime in politics, and there are events and issues not even on today's radar screen that could be decisive in November. However, there is little doubt about where the battlegrounds will be. It looks as if five very familiar states will hold the key to the mid-terms—and probably the 2024 presidential election as well. They are: Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona.
As pointed out by Democratic advisor Doug Sosnik, all five have competitive Governors' races—and they were the only states to vote for the presidential winner in both 2016 and 2020. Almost all have highly-competitive House races as well. President Biden has favorability numbers below 50% in all five states—making them even more subject to volatility.
Increasingly, the demographic and socio-economic changes rocking America are played out disproportionately in these five states. On Election Night 2022 (and 2024 as well) keep an eye on "The Five"—their voters will likely hold the key to victory.