April 11, 2022

The Five States That Will Determine 2022 And 2024

Just seven months remain before the 2022 mid-term elections. As of today, Republicans are poised to sweep back into power—with a 17-point edge in 'enthusiasm' compared with Democratic voters. With inflation numbers out this week that are likely to top 8% (the worst in decades), things can only get better for the GOP—at least in the near-term.

The truth is, seven months is a lifetime in politics, and there are events and issues not even on today's radar screen that could be decisive in November. However, there is little doubt about where the battlegrounds will be. It looks as if five very familiar states will hold the key to the mid-terms—and probably the 2024 presidential election as well. They are: Michigan, Wisconsin, Georgia, Pennsylvania and Arizona

As pointed out by Democratic advisor Doug Sosnik, all five have competitive Governors' races—and they were the only states to vote for the presidential winner in both 2016 and 2020. Almost all have highly-competitive House races as well. President Biden has favorability numbers below 50% in all five states—making them even more subject to volatility.

Increasingly, the demographic and socio-economic changes rocking America are played out disproportionately in these five states. On Election Night 2022 (and 2024 as well) keep an eye on "The Five"—their voters will likely hold the key to victory.