'Sense Of Place' Key to Mid-Terms?

Pundits on the left and right have been speculating about which issues will drive more voters in the upcoming mid-term elections. Will ‘inflation and the economy’ propel Republicans to control of Congress, or will ‘abortion rights and January 6th’ keep Democrats in power? Or will it be a jumbled mixture of all of these?

In fact, a more fundamental issue may hold sway—one which former House Speaker Tip O’Neill encapsulated as follows: “All politics is local”. In a recent article for ‘The Liberal Patriot’, John Halpin argued that, “If you live in a nice and safe town with plenty of welcoming public spaces, you probably are happier about the state of things”. Halpin calls it the “healthy parks theory of governance”. 

The theory is that a green, safe community makes people feel ‘good’ about things, while the alternative makes them feel ‘bad’ about things. While this may seem simplistic, the truth is that most of politics is pretty simple—we complicate it too much. 

So, how will this “sense of place” issue impact the mid-terms? For most Americans, the economic well-being of their family is the critical element of this issue—and it’s not a good situation. In addition, the perceived rise in crime in many communities will likely also weigh down this local sense of place. Both of these would seem to favor Republicans. 

But, abortion rights also go the issue of family well-being. And part of being proud of a local community is the degree to which you see it as protecting basic rights. The flurry of local laws in ‘blue’ states codifying the elements of Roe v. Wade is an example of that.

So, the ‘sense of place’ dynamic may be different in every local community, but it will likely have a huge impact on the aggregate results. Essentially, it may come down to whether people see things in their local communities as positive or negative—and for which reasons.