After the final two major party candidates are selected this Summer, get ready for a rough-and-tumble general election campaign that may be even closer than the last two presidential elections. As you may recall, President Joe Biden beat former President Donald Trump by only 44,000 votes in the three critical “swing states” of Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin. Had those vote margins shifted just a little, the 2020 election would have ended in a tie in the Electoral College. And, Trump’s 2016 victory was no blowout, either. The former President beat Hillary Clinton by a little more than 80,000 votes in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan—and, of course, the former Secretary of State won the popular vote.
If anything, the country is more divided politically than either of those previous election cycles. Plus, existing or potential third party candidacies (Joe Manchin, Jill Stein, Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., Cornel West) could complicate matters even further. And, recent polls have shown a distaste for a re-match of the two likely major-party nominees—who are over 80 (Biden) or nearing that age (Trump).
While the 2020 election resulted in the largest turnout in U.S. history (mostly because of widespread, COVID-induced non-traditional voting), it’s unclear whether voters will be as motivated this time around—or whether a malaise-driven apathy will keep turnout down. In any event, the process will be dominated by massive campaign spending and plenty of vitriol. November 5th will certainly be a doozy. In the words of Bette Davis’ character in ‘All About Eve’: "Fasten your seat belts, it's going to be a bumpy night".