It seems as if this presidential campaign has been going on forever—with more twists and turns than a season of Game of Thrones. Not only is it exhausting, it’s expensive. The Wall Street Journal recently estimated that a U.S. presidential election costs 40 times more per person than equivalent elections in the U.K. and Germany.
And after all the rallies, debates and TV spots, it’s probably going to come down to three states—Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania. The so-called “Blue Wall” in the industrial heartland of America has usually determined—in some combination or other—the eventual winner. This year is probably no different.
If you believe all the recent polling (and, of course, I do), it appears that Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump are dead even in all three states—according to 538 polling averages. And, while Trump is currently leading in places like Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina, all of those states are close enough that they could flip back and forth in the next week. And that could dramatically change the electoral map.
In fact, a shift of a few thousand votes in multiple states could result in Electoral College landslides for either candidate. That’s how crazily close this race is. And yet, it’s still probably more likely than not that Wisconsin, Michigan and Pennsylvania will hold the key to victory. We’ll all know next Tuesday night—maybe.