“Research shows that independent voters are not merely "closet" Republicans or Democrats—but are actually developing their own political culture that rejects the increasingly extreme postures of the two main parties. If this is true, it could signal a dramatic reconfiguration of the American political landscape. Independents seem to base their voting decisions on individual candidates and specific public policy issues—not knee-jerk partisan messaging.”
Now, the Gallup organization has released new polling that shows the share of Independent voters has risen even higher—to 45% of the electorate. This is partly due to younger Gen Z voters moving to independent status at a greater pace than their Millennial and Gen X counterparts did. But, the trend is more profound than just age differentials can explain—it’s been happening steadily over the last 15 years. Moreover, today, just 27% each identify as either Republicans or Democrats—relegating the two major parties to also-ran status.
Whichever party can capture the hearts of this growing segment of Independent voters can significantly impact elections. For example, in 2022, while Republicans captured the Congress, they did so with much smaller margins in the House and Senate than was predicted. This was due in no small part to Independents breaking for Democratic candidates over Republicans by a 2-point margin.
As we near the critical 2026 mid-terms, Democrats still hold that edge—now by a 3-point margin. But, Independents—by their very nature—are a fickle lot. A whole host of issues between now and November (e.g., affordability, foreign military events, immigration enforcement) can swing things wildly in either direction. Indeed, Independent voters are now the new kingmakers.