America's New Political Dynamic: Metro VS. Rural

The release of new 2020 Census data reveals that American politics is much more defined by a "metro" vs. "rural" split than any regional "north/south" or "red/blue" divide. But, because of various institutional structures, it's likely that the feisty Democratic/Republican competition for who wields power in Washington, D.C. will continue. Both the Electoral College and the Senate give rural constituencies an advantage—balancing significant metro benefits in the House and elsewhere.

As Boston College political scientist David A. Hopkins points out: "The intensifying conflict between city and country has had a number of important consequences for how each party operates, which voters it attracts, and which states and districts it is likely to win, but it does not show any signs of ending the perennially close competition for control of the federal government that has become a distinctive characteristic of our current age." 

Indeed, while rural voters have intensified their level of support for Republican candidates (particularly those with a populist "Trump" perspective), cities and suburbs have increasingly been voting Democratic. This has created our current tenuous balance: a 50-50 Senate and a razor-thin Democratic majority in the House. 

The 2022 mid-terms will probably see Republican gains (as happens with almost all "out" parties), but the metro/rural dynamic will likely create enough balance that some form of divided government will result. Stay tuned!