Are 'Surge Voters' Key To The 2022 Midterms?

With the 2022 mid-term elections just 10 months away, it’s important for the polling industry to learn from the past and focus on the voters who are likely to actually turn out. Increasingly, these are so-called ‘surge voters’—people who may not have participated at a high level before but (for a variety of reasons) are highly likely to cast a ballot now. In the 2016 presidential election, Donald Trump captured a large share of such ‘surge voters’—mostly Midwestern, white and non-college-educated. Many pollsters didn’t identify them as key voters, under-represented them in their samples and predicted a Hillary Clinton win. Similar mistakes emerged in the 2020 polling cycle—and even in last-year’s elections (see the Virginia and New Jersey gubernatorial races).

It’s no longer good enough to just talk to registered voters—or even so-called ‘likely voters’. Pollsters need to drill down further and identify who is motivated enough to either physically go to the polls or submit a mail ballot. Questions that simply ask for past voting behavior will miss huge chunks of these newly-enthused surge voters. Conversely, assuming other groups will turn out based on past behavior (like younger voters) can also be problematic. Recent polls have shown that 18-35-year-olds are among the most discouraged voters in the country—and are souring on President Biden and parts of the Democratic national agenda.

Polling questions need to gauge these levels of enthusiasm and pollsters need to apply the results to every segment of the voting population—not just the ‘usual suspects’. Creating turnout models from a battery of ‘surge voter’ questions should produce data that are closer to actual election results. Our industry needs to get it right in 2022 and beyond.