Franklin Delano Roosevelt was not only one of our country’s greatest
chief executives, he also pioneered the strategic use of public opinion
research in presidential campaigns. As pointed out in a
recent article
by Bradley Honan and Elisabeth Zeche, FDR hired Emil Hurja to conduct
voter surveys in the 1932 campaign. Working through the Democratic
National Committee, Hurja used polling data to strategically target
‘persuadable’ voters in key swing states—two concepts that are
commonplace today but were unheard of then. The Roosevelt campaign was
able to efficiently allocate resources to areas that would have the
greatest electoral impact. Thus, FDR went on to beat incumbent Herbert
Hoover in every state except Pennsylvania, Connecticut, Maine, New
Hampshire and Vermont.
In 1936, Hurja again employed voter
targeting through survey research—this time to persuade FDR to move his
policies leftward to neutralize left-leaning third party
efforts—primarily that of Louisiana Governor Huey Long. Still in the
throes of the Depression, Hurja feared enough votes could be peeled away
to give Republicans the White House. Roosevelt listened to Hurja, moved
his policies further leftward, and ended up beating Republican Alf
Landon—this time losing only Vermont and Maine.
So, while FDR can
be rightly praised for saving the country from economic ruin and a
devastating world war, he should also be credited with putting in place
the modern science of political polling. Oh, and let’s also acknowledge
the consultant who helped make it happen—Emil Hurja.
